The US elections as seen by American expats

US expats represent an approximate of 9 million voters in the upcoming US federal elections, a population which would be the 13th largest state if taken as a whole.

The government's response to the coronavirus crisis and tax policies is what is likely to generate the most impact on the voting decision of these expats in 2020, according to the most recent Greenback’s 2020 Expat Opinion survey carried out, with 81% of Americans abroad disapproving of how the US government has responded to the Covid-19 pandemic...

Andrew, a US citizen from New York, who has lived in Porto, Portugal since 2017, said:

"The thing that will affect me the most if Trump is re-elected is tax policy. For us Americans who live outside the United States, the payment of taxes to the United States is maintained in some aspects, this scenario is the one that worries me the most. "

The main issue here is not that the Trump administration has increased the burden of tax and financial reporting requirements for expats, but that nothing has been done to revert the previous reforms, which have affected American expats for the last 10 years (FATCA, FBAR, etc…). In the Greenback’s survey, 70% of US expats do not feel they should be required to file US taxes while living overseas and 41% of them have been directly impacted by FATCA requirements and additional reporting (see our article on the topic).

That is not to say that Tax will be the main reason for their vote in the US election next month. Voter turnout among expatriates is usually low. However, the survey shows that a record number of them is planning to vote this year, up to 82% , compared to 73% in 2016.

And although a fourth of those expats don’t think any candidate is representing their views, the vast majority of them is planning to vote Democrats (despite the fact that Democrats have not voiced any support towards easing their tax nightmares). Beside, the consequence of 4 years of erratic policy, concerns about safety/civil unrest, a country more polarized than ever, violence and racism at a peak, the US image damaged on the international stage as a consequence of an "unconventional" president made some American expat looking at citizenship renunciation because they were disappointed with the direction of the US government (See our article: "More US expats are renouncing their citizenship").

Process of voting abroad

All overseas Americans can vote by absentee ballot in federal elections; however, the pandemic has made it more complicated to vote this year. In addition, claims by President Trump that postal vote may by rigged and therefore could be scrapped, is not improving the confidence into the system.

Amongst many others, the US embassy in the UK is encouraging US expat voters to return ballots electronically rather than using the post. In order to vote, you need to register on FVAP.gov to complete a Federal Post Card Application (FPCA) which allows you to vote and request your absentee ballot at the same time.

What about non-US citizens in America?

Mirroring the increasing numbers of Americans who announce plans to leave the country if Donald Trump wins, a large part of expats living in the US are also considering leaving the US depending on the elections result.

Concerns about the health-care system

Many expatriates living in the US are very concern with the response from the US government to the Corona virus crisis. With 8 million cases and more than 220,000 dead, America has taken the heaviest toll of all countries around the globe, a fifth of all the deads in the world, and it has directed a sharp light on the difficulties in healthcare sector. It is widely admitted that a well-functioning health-care sector is a prerequisite for a well-functioning economy. Unfortunately, the problems with U.S. health care are substantial.

The benefits of the Obamacare, the medical protection reform of the previous administration, are still disputed. The law has expanded the number of Americans with health coverage by 20 million, including protecting people with pre-existing conditions and saving thousands of lives according to the Center for American Progress (a pro-Democrats organization). But on the other hand, the National Center for Biotechnology Information claims that "the ACA hasn't worked well for the working and middle class who receive much less support, particularly those who earn more than 400% of the federal poverty level, who constitute 40% of the population and don't receive any help."

Rafael, who lives in Los Angeles, California since 2015 says:

"I came to the US during the Obama administration, although I am very concerned about an imminent triumph of Donald Trump, due to strict tax policies and immigration laws, I believe that the health system has improved in a significant way compared to Obama Care".

Changes in immigration policy made life harder for many

Many expats agree that their lives took a significant turn since the election of Donald Trump. The life of many immigrants in the US has become harder and more uncertain, immigration being often at the centre of Trump’s rhetorical messages. Reuters said in August:

"U.S President Donald Trump is powering ahead with his anti-immigration agenda, even as voters say they are more concerned with the coronavirus pandemic and the economic destruction it has wrought."

Forbes reported that by 2021, Donald Trump will have reduced legal immigration by 49% since becoming president – without any change in U.S. immigration law, affecting primarily refugees, employers and Americans who want to live with their spouses, parents or children. The Covid-19 crisis has not improved the situation with naturalization slowed and ceremonies stopped for many applicants.

There has been much talk in office canteens, coffee shops, at dinner tables, and in the press about one of the most contentious election in US history. Some people say they would leave if Trump were to win the presidency. The day after the first  presidential debate for example, Google reported a peak number of searches for "How to apply for Canadian citizenship" or "move to Canada" in the US. With both American overseas and expatriates in the US wondering whether to change citizenship or move away, the result of the American election next month might have huge consequences for them.

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